Swydd-ddisgrifiad a phrif gyfrifoldebau manwl

A.      Actuarial modelling, forecasting and risk

·        Develop and apply actuarial models to understand population need, service demand, utilisation, outcomes, expenditure and financial risk.

·        Produce projections and forecasts using appropriate actuarial methods and assumptions.

·        Apply scenario, sensitivity and probabilistic techniques to assess uncertainty and risk.

·        Monitor model performance and identify opportunities for refinement and improvement.

• Ensure assumptions, limitations and uncertainty are clearly documented and communicated.

B.      Strategic planning and financial sustainability

·        Support strategic planning and commissioning by modelling the impact of population change, service transformation and alternative demand scenarios.

·        Assess the implications of demographic and non-demographic growth for future resource requirements.

·        Contribute to analyses of financial sustainability, affordability and risk.

• Assist in understanding the drivers of expenditure and utilisation and the distinction between underlying trends and short-term variation.

C.     Commissioning, payment and resource allocation

·        Support evaluation of commissioning and payment approaches, including population-based budgets, risk adjustment, capitated arrangements and risk-sharing mechanisms.

·        Contribute actuarial analysis to business cases, commissioning proposals and service redesign initiatives.

• Work with finance, commissioning and health economics colleagues to assess the relationship between financial risk, incentives and outcomes.

D.     Data, assumptions and assurance

·        Analyse large, complex population, activity, utilisation, outcome, cost and financial datasets.

·        Assess data quality, completeness, bias and fitness for purpose.

·        Develop and document assumptions using historical experience, trend analysis, external evidence and professional judgement.

·        Undertake validation, peer review and quality assurance of actuarial analyses.

• Maintain reproducible analytical approaches and appropriate technical documentation.

E.      Insight, communication and multidisciplinary working

·        Translate complex actuarial findings into clear recommendations for decision-makers.

·        Present forecasts, assumptions, risks and uncertainty in a way that is accessible to non-specialist audiences.

·        Contribute actuarial content to strategic plans, committee papers, option appraisals, evaluations and business cases.

·        Work collaboratively with health economists, data scientists, public health specialists, finance teams and commissioners.

• Support implementation and monitoring of decisions informed by actuarial analysis.

F.       Professional and organisational development

·        Maintain professional actuarial knowledge and skills through continuing professional development.

·        Contribute to the development of actuarial methods, modelling standards and shared analytical resources.

·        Support the development of less experienced analysts and actuarial trainees where appropriate.

• Contribute to a culture of learning, collaboration and continuous improvement.