Job vacancy: Senior Mathematical Modeller (NIHR HPRU - EPR), UK Health Security Agency, Homebased

Job summary

Main area

Epidemiology

Grade

Civil Service: Senior Executive Officer (SEO)

Contract

Fixed term: 3 years (Until 31/03/2028)

Hours

Full time
Part time
Job share
Flexible working
Home or remote working

37.5 hours per week

Job ref

919-CP-113849-EXT

Employer: UK Health Security Agency
Employer type: Public (Non NHS)
Site: Homebased
Town: Homebased
Salary: £40,661 - £50,472 per annum, pro rata
Salary period: Yearly
Closing: 10/09/2025 23:59

Senior Mathematical Modeller (NIHR HPRU - EPR)

Civil Service: Senior Executive Officer (SEO)

The United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA) is a system leader for health security; taking action internationally to strengthen global health security, providing trusted advice to government and the public and reducing inequalities in the way different communities experience and are impacted by infectious disease, environmental hazards, and other threats to health.

UKHSA’s remit, as an agency with a global-to-local reach, is to protect the health of the nation from infectious diseases and other external threats to health. As the nation’s expert national health security agency UKHSA will:

Prevent: anticipate threats to health and help build the nation’s readiness, defences and health security
Detect: use cutting edge environmental and biological surveillance to proactively detect and monitor infectious diseases and threats to health
Analyse: use world-class science and data analytics to assess and continually monitor threats to health, identifying how best to control and mitigate the risks
Respond: take rapid, collaborative and effective actions nationally and locally to mitigate threats to health when they materialise
Lead: lead strong and sustainable global, national, regional and local partnerships designed to save lives, protect the nation from public health threats and reduce inequalities.

Detailed job description and main responsibilities

This role would typically be suitable for someone with a few years postgraduate experience or someone looking for a postdoctoral type role. As postholder you would, in conversation with your line-manager, be expected to lead research and development of the team’s work under the HPRU. Depending on the level of demand on the team you may supervise short-term placement students and interns or PhDs within the HPRU. You would bring mathematical / technical expertise to ensure that scientific and other outputs are produced in a timely way.

The team’s work-packages currently comprise:

• Source-term estimation – locating pathogen sources from case data.
• In-host dynamics – how a pathogen behaves inside the human body.
• Model frameworks – high level code for the rapid production of models.
• Neural networks for model emulation and machine vision – using the power of inferential tools to speed up models and to detect health threats.

The specific projects under the HPRU likely assigned to this role, either directly or in collaboration with others in the team, being:

• Applied records of traumatic events and mass injury surveillance

This aims to create a global database of non-fatal injuries, including sequelae (e.g. disease, deprivation) and probability of survival. Focussing especially on disadvantaged communities, we will explore the long-term burden of disease, psychosocial sequelae and socioeconomic hardship of survivors of a major incident.

• Syndromic surveillance of injury and correlates of community resilience

This project will look at the syndromic surveillance of injuries and observe how these may predict incoming demand on the health system and will: characterise the nature and seasonality of such reports, investigate linkable statistics to help drive causal inference, look into the differential of report types between different types of medical unit.

You would be expected to be knowledgeable in some mathematical, statistical, or computational techniques and be willing to learn others. Similarly, you will be able to show ability to progress projects and may contribute to developing the project portfolio within the team through grant applications and other funding opportunities.

You will be expected to be a role-model for the technical and behavioural aspects of the team. In the latter aspect, team skills are important to this role as is demonstrating a forward-looking and investigative nature.
You should be able to identify, discuss and act on your own professional performance and training / development needs and would be expected to attend virtual or physical internal and external training events. This would include all mandatory training (e.g. fire safety, information governance, etc.)

As postholder you will develop working relationships, communicate, and maintain vital interactions with collaborators in academia and across government and would comprise regular contact with a wide range of individuals, clinical and non-clinical, internal and external to UKHSA. This is expected to include: daily collaboration with the other members of the Modelling for EPRR team and individuals within the wider Advanced Analytics (AA) division (which includes Data-science, Economics, and Epidemiology Teams); regular contact with other members of the wider Analysis and Intelligence Assessment directorate and people within the HPRU at University of Birmingham, with the AA senior leadership team, directorate and HPRU administrative staff, and with HPC support staff; and periodic or occasional contact with other modelling, statistics and epidemiology teams within UKHSA, Dstl, DHSC, Cabinet Office and other similar organisations.
The above is only an outline of the tasks, responsibilities and outcomes required of the role. You will carry out any other duties as may reasonably be required by the agency.

Essential Criteria.

We will be assessing your demonstrated ability to think critically about the world and break problems down into pieces that are amenable to quantitative representation (mathematical or statistical modelling).

You should be expecting to show the panel examples of where you have done this previously and what the outcomes of your work was.

First degree in a discipline involving high mathematical or statistical content or significant experience of working at a similar level in specialist area.
Higher degree (preferably PhD) or substantially equivalent experience in: the application of research focused computer code or mathematical modelling or statistics to problems in health (human, animal, or plant), microbiology or biological sciences.
Demonstrable practical postgraduate experience in applying one or more of the techniques in the core skills ( Mathematics, Statistical modelling, Modelling, Data analysis) below.
Well-developed skills in producing computer code from mathematics and/or algometric description (preferably Python, but any mainstream language acceptable)
Excellent communication skills written, verbal, tele/videoconferencing.
Able to work together with others to achieve goals (team player).
An understanding of and commitment to equality of opportunity and good working relationships, both in terms of day-to-day working practices, but also in relation to team management.

Core skills

Mathematical modelling is both a broad and deep field. It is expected that the post holder will bring some, but far from all, of the skills below to the team. It is expected that they will be expert in some sections and know little about others.

Mathematics

• Constructing, using, and solving ODE and/or PDE systems.
• Numerical analysis.
• Approximation theory.
• Operation research including linear and non-linear optimisation
• Functional analysis.
• Dimensional analysis.

Statistical modelling

• Frequentist analysis (e.g., ANOVA, GLM, LMEM, etc.).
• Bayesian statistics and analysis.
• Probability distribution theory.
• Stochastic simulation.
• Monte Carlo simulation.
• Neural networks and/or machine learning (e.g., Random Forest, SVM, etc.)

Modelling

• Mechanistic modelling.
• Predictive modelling.
• Compartmental disease modelling.
• Meta-population (patch) modelling.
• Individual based modelling.
• Network or next generation modelling.
• Integrated epidemiology and macro-economic modelling.
• Spatio-temporal modelling.
• Sensitivity analysis.
• Demographic modelling.
• Parameter estimation.
• Uncertainty analysis.

Data analysis

• Data cleaning.
• Processing and use of remotely sensed data.

Software

• Set and analyse software requirements.
• Formulation and implementation of unit and system tests
• Produce code suitable for distribution on domain/language specific platforms (e.g., CRAN / PyPI).

Stage 1: Application & Sift

This vacancy is using Success Profiles and will assess your behaviours and Experience.

At sift stage you will be assessed against the essential listed in the job advert.

As part of the application process, you will be asked to provide a Personal Statement / Supporting Statement in no more than 750 words. Note: Healthjobs UK has a word limit in this section of 1500 words in the form but only the first 750 words will be scored. You should outline your skills, experience, and achievements, providing evidence of your suitability for the role, with particular reference to the Essential criteria (outlined in the person specification / job description).

You will also be asked to provide information within the ‘Employer/ Activity history’ section of the application form. This is equivalent to the information you would provide on a CV, setting out your career history. This will be used in the sifting process and will be scored against the same criteria. Please be advised you will not be able to upload your CV. Please complete the application form with as much relevant detail as possible.

You will be required to complete an:

Application form (‘Employer/ Activity history’ section on the application)
Supporting Statement (up to 750 words) - this should outline how your skills, experience, and knowledge, provide evidence of your suitability for the role.

You will receive a joint score for your application form and statement.

Your statement of suitability must be no more than 750 words.

If we receive a large number of applications an initial sift against the lead criteria of the essential criteria will be conducted.

Demonstrable practical postgraduate experience in applying one or more of the techniques in the core skills above.

Longlisting: In the event of a large number of applications we may longlist into 3 piles of:

1. Meets all essential criteria
2. Meets most essential criteria
3. Meets no essential criteria

Should we longlist, we will take though only those who meet all essential criteria.

Please note feedback will not be provided at this stage.

Candidates who pass the sift stage will progress to a Technical assessment stage.

Stage 2: Technical assessment (120 minutes)

There will be a technical assessment for those who pass the application stage where you will be expected to demonstrate your ability to problem-solve using code and to explain the code you produce. This typically consists of a set problem, 90 minutes to formulate a solution and a 15-minute Q&A session with a panel where you explain your solution.

Candidates who pass the technical assessment stage will be invited to a remote interview.

Stage 3: Interview (success profiles)

You will be invited to a remote interview.

For this round we are using published interview questions. That is, you will be given the lead questions 48 hours before the interview so that you may give a considered answer and best reflect your strengths. You should expect unscripted follow-up questions based on your answers and to probe your knowledge.

Interviews will be held week commencing 22nd September, please note these dates are subject to change.

This vacancy is being assessed using Success Profiles. During the interview we will assess you against the below:

Behaviours:

o Working together

o Communicating and influencing

o Changing and improving

Previous Skills and Experience: technical skills and ability

You will be asked to prepare and present a 7-minute presentation. The subject of this will be “How mathematical modelling may be used to improve response to public health emergencies”.

Once this job has closed, the job advert will no longer be available. You may want to save a copy for your records

External   

Open to all external applicants (anyone) from outside the Civil Service (including by definition internal applicants).  

Location

This role is being offered as Homebased.

Security Clearance.

Successful candidates must meet the security requirements before they can be appointed. The level of security needed is Security Clearance

For meaningful National Security Vetting checks to be carried out individuals need to have lived in the UK for a sufficient period of time. You should normally have been resident in the United Kingdom for the last 5 years as the role requires Security Check (SC) UK residency less than the outlined periods may not necessarily bar you from gaining national security vetting and applicants should contact the Vacancy Holder / Recruiting Manager listed in the advert for further advice. 

Successful candidates must also meet the security requirements before they can be appointed. The level of security needed is Personnel Security Standard (BPSS). An enhanced DBS is required.

Person specification

Essential and Desirable criteria

Essential criteria

Supporting Statement & CV

Behaviours

Essential criteria

Working together
Communicating and influencing
Changing and improving

Previous Skills and Experience

Essential criteria

Technical skills
Ability

IMPORTANT - PLEASE READ

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Artificial Intelligence can be a useful tool to support your application, however, all examples and statements provided must be truthful, factually accurate and taken directly from your own experience. Where plagiarism has been identified (presenting the ideas and experiences of others, or generated by artificial intelligence, as your own) applications may be withdrawn and internal candidates may be subject to disciplinary action. Please see our candidate guidance for more information on appropriate and inappropriate use.

Link below:

Artificial intelligence and recruitment | Civil Service Careers

This is a Non-Reserved post under the Civil Service Nationality Rules. To be eligible for employment in the UK Civil Service applicants must meet the Civil Service Nationality Rules (CSNRs) which operate independently of and additionally to the Immigration Rules. Applicants must also meet necessary security and vetting requirements, along with any other relevant pre-employment checks.

This job is broadly open to the following groups:

UK nationals
nationals of the Republic of Ireland
nationals of Commonwealth countries who have the right to work in the UK
nationals of the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein and family members of those nationalities with settled or pre-settled status under the European Union Settlement Scheme (EUSS) (opens in a new window)
nationals of the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein and family members of those nationalities who have made a valid application for settled or pre-settled status under the European Union Settlement Scheme (EUSS)
individuals with limited leave to remain or indefinite leave to remain who were eligible to apply for EUSS on or before 31 December 2020
Turkish nationals, and certain family members of Turkish nationals, who have accrued the right to work in the Civil Service

For more information on job nationality requirements and the right to work in the UK, see the Civil Service Nationality rules (opens in a new window) and the UK Visas and Immigration rules (opens in a new window)

For posts on UKHSA Civil Service terms and conditions, new entrants to the Civil Service are expected to start on the minimum of the pay band. For existing Civil Servants and roles advertised across government, the rules of transfer apply, i.e., level transfers move on current salary or the pay range minimum, transfers on promotion move to new pay range minimum or receive a 10% increase. Either case is determined by whichever is the highest.

The Civil Service pay structure and progression is different from NHS Agenda for Change (AfC), most local authority pay grades and other systems that have annual pay increments. For further details, please refer to the Information Sheet- Starting Salaries & Benefits attachment.

For AfC or Medical/Dental posts, you must have the correct professional registration to be appointed. The pay will follow the AfC or Medical & Dental terms & conditions. You may be asked to provide evidence of previous service whilst we are conducting pre-employment checks to determine your starting salary.

For Temporary Appointments, if you are not currently a civil servant, you will take up the post on a Fixed Term appointment.  You may be able to take this role up as a Secondment. If you are an existing Civil Servant, based outside of the UKHSA, you will take up the post as a loan which you will need your department to agree. You cannot take the post up as a fixed term. If you are an existing UKHSA member of staff, you will take up the post as either a level transfer or a temporary promotion as per the UKHSA’s Pay policy. 

Given the nature of the work of the UKHSA, as a Category 1 responder under the Civil Contingencies Act, you may be required in an emergency, if deemed a necessity, to redeploy to another role at short notice. You may also be required to work at any other location, within reasonable travelling distance of your permanent home address, in line with the provisions set out in your contract of employment.

Late Applications will unfortunately not be considered.

Working for the Civil Service

The Civil Service Code (opens in a new window) sets out the standards of behaviour expected of civil servants.

We recruit by merit on the basis of fair and open competition, as outlined in the Civil Service Commission's recruitment principles (opens in a new window).

The Civil Service embraces diversity and promotes equality of opportunity. The law requires that selection for appointment to the Civil Service is on merit on the basis of fair and open competition, as outlined in the Civil Service Commission's Recruitment Principles.

If you feel your application has not been treated in accordance with the Recruitment Principles, and you wish to make a complaint, in the first instance, you should contact UKHSA Public Accountability Unit via  email:  [email protected] If you are not satisfied with the response you receive from the Department, you can contact the Civil Service Commission: Visit the Civil Service Commission website here.

Reserve List - If more than the required number of suitable candidates pass the interview criteria, you may be kept on a reserve list for 12 months subject to your agreement. You may be contacted, in merit-order, if similar roles with closely matching essential criteria become available and the department choose to appoint from a reserve list.

The panel will assess if candidates meet the requirement of the role first, using a specific benchmark system. If you are interviewed for the post and do not meet the required threshold for the specified grade, your application may be assessed against a similar, lower grade role and you may be offered the post should one be available.

Interview expenses will not be reimbursed.

UKHSA is required to check employment and/or education history covering three consecutive years. Please ensure you give details of at least two different referees, even if you were employed in one company for three years or more.

If you are offered a job, information will also be transferred into the national NHS Electronic Staff Records system. Please note, all communication regarding your application will be made via email, please ensure you check your junk/spam folders as emails are sometimes filtered there.

Any move to UKHSA from another employer will mean you can no longer access childcare vouchers. This includes moves between government departments. You may however be eligible for other government schemes, including Tax-Free Childcare. Determine your eligibility at https://www.childcarechoices.gov.uk/.

 Benefits of working at UKHSA include:

Generous annual leave:
-26 days for the first 5 years of continuous service
-28 days after 5 years of continuous service
-32 days after 10 years of continuous service
-Plus public holidays and one privilege day for the King’s birthday
Access to a generous Defined Benefit pension scheme with employer contributions.
Access to a cycle-to-work salary sacrifice scheme, season ticket advances and payroll giving.
Access to a retail discounts and cashback site.
We also promote flexible working patterns (part-time, job-share, condensed hours). UKHSA views flexible working as essential in enabling us to recruit and retain talented people, ensuring that they are able to enjoy a long-lasting career with us. All employees have the right to apply for flexible working and there are a range of options available including working from home, compressed hours and job sharing.
We also offer a generous maternity/ paternity and adoption leave package.

Hybrid Working

UKHSA operates a hybrid working model where business needs allow. This provides us with greater flexibility about how and where we work, to get the best from our workforce.

As a hybrid worker, you will usually spend a minimum of 60% of your contracted hours (averaged over a month) working at one of UKHSA's locations (approximately 3 days a week pro rata) and the rest of your time working from home.

Disability Confident Scheme

The Civil Service embraces diversity and promotes equal opportunities. As such, we run a Disability Confident Scheme for candidates with disabilities who meet the minimum selection criteria at sift to ensure these candidates are invited to interview.   If you wish to be included in this scheme please tick the box on your application form.

Reasonable Adjustments

The Civil Service is committed to making sure that our selection methods are fair to everyone.

To help you during the recruitment process, we will take into account any reasonable adjustments that could help you.

An adjustment is a change to the recruitment process or an adjustment at work.

This is separate to the Disability Confident Scheme.

If you need an adjustment to be made at any point during the recruitment process you should:

Contact the recruitment team in confidence as soon as possible to discuss your needs.

You can find out more information about reasonable adjustments across the Civil Service here: https://www.civil-service-careers.gov.uk/reasonable-adjustments/

International Police Check

If you have spent more than 6 months abroad over the last 3 years you may need an International Police Check. This would not necessarily have to be in a single block, and could be time accrued over that period.

Internal Fraud check

If successful for this role as one aspect of pre-employment screening, applicant’s personal details – name, national insurance number and date of birth - will be checked against the Cabinet Office Internal Fraud Hub and anyone included on the database will be refused employment unless they can show exceptional circumstances. Currently this is only for External candidates to the Civil Service.

Security Vetting

Please check the Security Clearance needed for the role and follow the link for more information:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/united-kingdom-security-vetting-clearance-levels/national-security-vetting-clearance-levels

Future location

UKHSA is investing in a new state-of-the-art National Biosecurity Centre in Harlow, Essex, which will eventually bring together teams currently based at Canary Wharf, Colindale and Porton Down. For more details, please see: Huge biosecurity centre investment to boost pandemic protection - GOV.UK.

The new facilities will start becoming operational in the mid-2030s, with full completion by 2038. Staff will move in phases as facilities become available. If you're appointed to a role currently based at Canary Wharf, Colindale or Porton Down, please note that we'll continue investing in these sites for the next decade. As we get closer to the transition, we'll provide full information about relocation support available to staff.